Buckeye Poll: Republicans lead statewide races by big margins, but many voters undecided

Republican Gov. John Kasich has a 19-point lead over Democratic challenger Ed FitzGerald in the race for Ohio governor, but other Democrats running for state office are faring somewhat better, new poll results show.
 
The Buckeye Poll of Ohio, conducted just before Labor Day by the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at The University of Akron, shows Kasich leading FitzGerald, 46 percent to 27 percent, with 23 percent undecided and 4 percent for other candidates. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

'Snapshot in time'

“This Republican advantage is not unusual, given the benefits of incumbency and a national political environment favorable to the GOP,” said John Green, Bliss Institute director. “Like all surveys, these results are a snapshot in time and subject to change as the campaign develops.” In contrast, the race for secretary of state is much tighter, with Republican Jon Husted leading Democrat Nina Turner, 30 percent to 25 percent, with 45 percent undecided.
 
Some races could tighten before Election Day, Nov. 4.
 
“The closeness of down-ticket races and the large number of undecided voters means that some Democratic candidates may be competitive on their own,” Green said. Ohio registered voters are almost evenly divided between wanting Republicans to continue in control of state government and wanting the Democrats to take control. “A key factor in Kasich’s support is a unified Republican base,” Green noted, “The Democrats are not similarly unified behind FitzGerald.”

Voter interest likely to increase 

As of Labor Day, just one-third of registered voters were “very interested” in the campaign, a figure that is likely to increase as Election Day nears. Almost half of respondents said the economy would be the top priority when they cast a ballot, and among those voters, Kasich leads FitzGerald, 41 percent to 33 percent. A majority of voters said that “honesty and integrity” are top traits they look for in a candidate. Kasich leads, 55 percent to 23 percent, among voters assessing those traits. About 30 percent of voters said “understanding ordinary people” was the most important candidate trait. Fitzgerald has an advantage of 36 percent to 30 percent among that group.
 
The survey was conducted in late August by the Center for Marketing and Opinion Research for the Bliss Institute as part of an ongoing research project on Ohio government. Participants in an April survey were re-interviewed, with some new interviews conducted to ensure a representative sample. The sample of 600 registered voters included landline and cell phone components, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. A full report can be found at at The Bliss Institute online.

Media contact: Roger Mezger, 330-972-4219 or rmezger@uakron.edu.